What we need to be watching in the tropics


The hurricane season is really ramping up as we are now tracking four areas of concern in the tropics. Hurricane Gert is now a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph is and is located about 400 miles north of Bermuda. Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the east coast of the United States from Virginia northward to New England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.

Invest 91-L located 900 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles is currently being hampered by dry air. This disturbance has a 60% chance of developing over the next five days. Other than the dry air, conditions are favorable to development due to 5 - 10 knots of wind shear. Right now the computer models are suggesting a due west track across the Lesser Antilles by Thursday into Friday. The system is then forecasted to reach Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula early next week.

We need to keep a closer eye on Invest 92-L as some of the computer models forecast development into a tropical storm with a track toward the Bahamas and eventually nearing the Florida Peninsula early next week. Right now the system has a 50% chance of developing during the next five days. It looks to encounter a more favorable environment for development by the beginning of next week.

Finally, a disturbance just rolling of the coast of Africa has a 40% chance of developing over the next five days as it pushes westward across the Atlantic. The steering flow over the next week would promote a more northerly track than Invest 91-L or Invest 92-L, keeping it well north and east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance could eventually impact the island of Bermuda by middle portions of next work week.

So, the bottom line is that for our interests here in South Florida, Invest 92-L is the one we need to watch the closest as it could possibly have impacts on our weather next week. The entire team of meteorololgists here at CBS 12 will continue to keep you up to date on the latest development.

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