'Extremely Dangerous' Hurricane Matthew strengthens into Cat. 5 storm

11pm Friday.jpg



'Extremely dangerous' Hurricane Matthew has now strengthened into a catastrophic Category 5 storm.

The 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center says Matthew's winds are sustained winds up to 160+ mph.

National Hurricane Center says Matthew is probably near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so.

The track has now shifted more west, putting east coast of Florida in the cone of error.

Matthew becomes the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 9 years.

While it is still unclear beyond the weekend where Matthew will go, it is imperative that Florida residents keep a close watch on Matthew's latest forecast track and intensity.

Forecasts show that a large, powerful hurricane may be near or over the Bahamas by Tuesday-Wednesday, but any change in track may bring the system closer or farther from Florida.

Given the large error in long term forecasts and the wide range of possibilities displayed we encourage you to check back daily for further updates.

At this time, it is a good idea to check your hurricane plan and kit to make sure you are prepared should a storm near our region. Preparedness is always the best measure to protect yourself against pending storms.

You can double check your plan using the CBS12 hurricane guide.

Track Matthew using CBS12 Hurricane tracker here.



1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind

of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.

Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably

with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.

The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since

2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to

140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane

Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic

basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain

a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the

reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum

winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur

soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given

that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some

weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a

category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern

Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of

Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid

strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt

steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.

In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of

the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.

This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and

then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very

consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate

much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast

period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track

models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing

the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely

the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast

errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.

Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts

from Matthew in Florida.


INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH

12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH

24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH

96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH


Forecaster Avila

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