New disturbance has strong chance to develop, move into Gulf

Two areas of disturbed weather are worth watching. (WPEC)

Forecasters are watching a broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean that may grow stronger and develop over the next few days.

The system, which should pass near Nicaragua and Honduras and move into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend has a 90% chance of development. Long-range forecast tracks show the disturbance moving into the Gulf and tracking north toward U.S. central Gulf states. If needed, a hurricane hunter plane will be sent into the area to better forecast possible tracks and speed.

There is also an area of low pressure over central Cuba that is forecast to has minimal chance of development. This system is the cause for strong winds and heavy rains that have pelted South Florida for the past few days. Rainy, windy conditions will continue into the weekend.

This is the latest advisory from The National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure

located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better

organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a

tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward

the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward

across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on

Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and

emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in

Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should

monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be

issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is

scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless

of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions

of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash

floods and mudslides.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over west-central Cuba and

extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad

area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern

peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent

Atlantic waters. Although significant tropical development of this

system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief

squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty

winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida

peninsula during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

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