Closing in on Thanksgiving, a tropical depression is possible

Tropical Statistics

We're seeing the holidays all around us, from decorations at the mall to ads in the flyers, and even feeling a little cooler around these parts of South Florida. Thanksgiving is right around the corner but so is a tropical least possibly.

Our CBS12 Stormtrac team is closely monitoring thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea which may develop enough to be classified as a tropical depression, even a tropical storm. This would happen either this weekend or next week, well before the 'end of hurricane season' on November 30.

As of Wednesday, the thunderstorms were not showing any concrete evidence of being organized within a tropical entity. There is a broad low pressure associated with these thunderstorms, but fairly weak. Weather conditions appear to be conducive for tropical development, which the National Hurricane Center gives an 80% chance of happening between Friday and Tuesday (Nov. 18-22).

If this storm becomes named it'll be Otto, the 15th named storm this hurricane season. Getting a named storm this late in the season is not totally abnormal. The average date for the last named storm on any hurricane season is November 5, so this would be a little later than average.

We can rest easy for now, knowing there is no threat to Florida from this potential system. Many global models keep this storm parked in the southwest Caribbean for several days, then push it west and deplete it. That said, check back into for further updates because as you know, weather predictions do change!

-The CBS12 Stormtrac Team

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