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Tropical Storm Nate to drench Nicaragua, Costa Rica with heavy rain

TD #16 forecast to move into Gulf of Mexico (WPEC)

Tropical Storm Nate has maximum sustained winds at 40 mph, as of the 2 p.m. advisory.

It formed off the coast of Nicaragua overnight.

The National Hurricane Center believes it'll dump 15-20 inches of rain on Nicaragua. Costa Rica and Honduras could see 20 inches of rain in some isolated areas. The rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Current long-range forecasts have the storm moving into the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching hurricane strength. A turn to the northeast is anticipated, possibly making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Florida's panhandle over the weekend.

Forecasters warn there is some uncertainty late in the forecast track and interests all along the Gulf should monitor the storm's progress.

Gov. Scott Thursday declared a state of emergency in 29 counties to give crews time and resources to prepare for the storm.


The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...

...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...14.5N 84.0W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the

Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico

should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was

located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.5 North,

longitude 84.0 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph

(15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward

speed is expected this afternoon or tonight, with that motion

continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center

of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern

Honduras this afternoon and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea

tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of

the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center

is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over

the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km)

mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches

Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches

Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8

inches, isolated 12 inches

Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well

away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.

Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening

flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the

warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane

conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico

Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late

Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast

of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the

northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

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